Brent tops US$100 as TSX energy jumps 28% before Iran conflict shock
Oil’s sudden leap back above US$100 a barrel is testing markets’ nerves and sharpening interest in Canada’s heavy-asset stocks as investors reassess inflation, growth and portfolio risk.
According to BNN Bloomberg, Brent crude, the international benchmark, climbed 9.2 percent on Thursday to settle at US$100.46, while benchmark US crude jumped 9.7 percent to US$95.73.
CNBC reported that this marked Brent’s first close above US$100 since August 2022, after Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, said the Strait of Hormuz should remain closed as a “tool to pressure the enemy.”
The war with Iran has slowed or halted most traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, where about one-fifth of the world’s oil normally sails each day, according to BNN Bloomberg.
Storage tanks in the region are filling because crude has “nowhere to go,” and oil producers are cutting output.
AP News reported that oil briefly spiked near US$120, the highest level since the summer of 2022, and analysts warn prices could quickly reach US$150 if the strait remains closed.
BNN Bloomberg said the International Energy Agency plans a record release of 400m barrels of oil from emergency stockpiles, while CNBC reported that the United States will add 172m barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which will take about 120 days to deliver.
Energy Secretary Chris Wright told CNBC that the US Navy is “not ready” to escort tankers through the Strait yet, though it may be able to do so by month-end.
CNBC also reported that traffic there has “practically reached a standstill,” with multiple foreign vessels hit in the Persian Gulf on consecutive days and insurer Chubb acting as lead underwriter for a US program to cover ships transiting the passage.
Equity markets have sold off and turned volatile.
BNN Bloomberg reported that the S&P 500 fell 1.5 percent, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 739 points, or 1.6 percent, and the Nasdaq composite dropped 1.8 percent on Thursday.
CNBC said all three indexes closed at 2026 lows, with the Dow finishing below 47,000 for the first time this year.
AP News noted that, despite “manic” swings, the S&P 500 sits only about 4.4 percent below its all‑time high set in January, and that the index has historically recovered from steep drops tied to financial crises, trade disputes, and wars.
Sector moves underline the shock from higher energy costs.
According to BNN Bloomberg, cruise operator Carnival fell 7.9 percent and United Airlines sank 4.6 percent as companies with “big fuel bills” lagged.
CNBC reported that eight of 11 S&P 500 sectors ended lower, with banks and technology stocks under pressure, while energy names such as Chevron and Exxon Mobil were among the few gainers.
BNN Bloomberg also said worries about private credit continued, with investors pulling money from some lenders to businesses whose profits face threats, including from AI-powered competitors.
Morgan Stanley declined 4.1 percent after its North Haven Private Income Fund limited quarterly redemptions to its 5 percent cap, below the nearly 11 percent investors requested.
Bond markets have repriced quickly.
The 10‑year US Treasury yield rose to 4.26 percent from 4.21 percent the prior day and from 3.97 percent before the war, as rising oil prices pushed yields higher.
CNN noted that this climb marked the largest weekly leap since April and that higher yields increase borrowing costs across the economy.
Rising energy-driven inflation risks have also led Goldman Sachs economists to move their forecast for the next Federal Reserve rate cut from June to September, while traders began to price in no cuts this year.
Amid this backdrop, investors are reassessing Canada’s market.
BNN Bloomberg reported that capital is rotating into the TSX, which is “packed” with heavy-asset, low‑obsolescence “HALO” stocks such as energy producers, metal miners, industrials and utilities.
These companies account for 51 percent of the TSX versus 16 percent of the S&P 500, and helped drive a 28 percent gain for the Toronto market in 2025, compared with a 16 percent rise for the S&P 500.
Energy, materials, industrials, and utilities have led TSX performance this year, with energy up 28 percent, most of it before the US-Israel war on Iran began on February 28.
Foreign investors have been increasing their exposure.
Statistics Canada data showed foreign investment in Canadian equities rising to $17.2bn in the final quarter of 2025, up 132 percent from $7.4bn in the prior quarter.
Analysts told BNN Bloomberg that HALO and other value stocks could benefit from both the immense energy needs of AI and from planned federal spending of more than $280bn over five years on infrastructure, defence, housing, and productivity measures.
